On the other end of the spectrum from total deference are jurisdictions that apply de novo review, where judges evaluate anew the credibility of the government’s expert opinions and evidence. In these jurisdictions, the courts may, for example, inquire whether administrative bodies’ scientific findings conform to state-of-the-art scientific guidelines.
Sweden, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Germany, and Bulgaria all reported applying standards similar to de novo review to administrative authorities’ scientific conclusions.
However, there are practical limitations to de novo review of scientific assessments. For example, while German statutory law requires courts to review the scientific assessments of domestic authorities, the German report to the EUFJE acknowledges a court’s comparative lack of scientific expertise creates a “de facto limit on administrative judicial control.”
D. How Do Courts Evaluate Scientific Evidence, Reconcile Conflicts, and Handle Uncertainty in Scientific Evidence?
1. Reconciling Conflicting Scientific Evidence
The process European courts use for navigating conflicting scientific evidence varies significantly across jurisdictions. The general options, however, include relying on the parties’ experts and their cross-examination to illuminate the highest quality scientific opinion, leaning on the knowledge of expert judges or court-appointed experts, or appointing independent experts for the explicit purpose of evaluating conflicting evidence.
In common-law adversarial systems like the U.K., Ireland, and Cyprus, cross-examination by opposing parties is the primary means by which judges can evaluate the comparative strengths of conflicting scientific evidence. Through cross-examination, judges may evaluate the relative qualifications of competing experts, the quality of each expert’s or other scientific evidence’s data, the extent to which each expert or other scientific evidence has applied rigorous scientific methods of evaluation, and more.
In civil law jurisdictions, there is a wide variety of approaches to reconciling conflicting scientific evidence. While some jurisdictions leave judges to independently evaluate the parties’ contradictory evidence in accordance with the principle of free evaluation of evidence, others allow judges to seek the help of court-appointed experts to assess contradictory evidence. For example, in EUFJE submissions, Estonia, Czechia, Slovakia, and Bulgaria reported allowing judges to employ court-appointed experts to review conflicting scientific evidence and assist judges in interpreting scientific material. Expert or technically qualified judges, as appear in countries like Finland, Sweden, and Norway, also play a crucial role in evaluating the relative credibility of conflicting pieces of scientific evidence.
2. Scientific Uncertainty and the Precautionary Principle
Many European court systems employ the precautionary principle to allow policies that prioritize human health and safety in the face of uncertainty in the relevant evidence. The precautionary principle is embedded in Article 191 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and it aims to ensure a high level of environmental protection through preventative policymaking in the face of risk, even when those risks are not fully understood.
The principle applies in most instances of environmental risk, including in climate policies.
The European Court of Justice often applies the precautionary principle when it is asked to evaluate environmental regulatory measures. For example, in Commission v. Denmark, the ECJ upheld Denmark’s strict regulations on food additives because “a Member State may, in accordance with the precautionary principle, take protective measures without having to wait until the reality and seriousness of those risks are fully demonstrated.”
The precautionary principle has similarly appeared in ECJ cases related to climate change. For example, in Afton Chemical Limited v. Secretary of State for Transport, a British chemical company challenged a provision of the EU’s fuel quality directive, which obliges Member States to require fuel suppliers to reduce the life cycle GHG intensity of transport fuels. The company challenged the scientific support for EU limits and labeling requirements for the use of a particular fuel additive (MMT). However, the ECJ found the regulation was justified because
where it proves to be impossible to determine with certainty the existence or extent of the alleged risk because of the insufficiency, inconclusiveness or imprecision of the results of studies conducted, but the likelihood of real harm to public health persists should the risk materialize, the precautionary principle justifies the adoption of restrictive measures, provided they are non-discriminatory and objective.
Many domestic European judiciaries have also employed the precautionary principle both when applying EU law and in situations where their countries have adopted the precautionary principle into their domestic legal frameworks. In their reports to the EUFJE, for example, Czechia and Finland reported the precautionary principle as being their primary means of resolving cases dealing with persistent scientific uncertainty.
The Urgenda decision represents an example where a domestic court employed the principle. The Dutch Supreme Court rejected arguments that scientific uncertainty regarding climate impacts obviated the need for State action, saying, “the fact that full scientific certainty regarding the efficacy of the ordered reduction scenario is lacking does not mean, given the due observance of the precautionary principle, that the State is entitled to refrain from taking measures.”
E. Courts Handling Climate Science: Practical Examples
Finally, an analysis of three European climate cases from three different jurisdictions demonstrates many of the issues identified above in practice, including the important role of scientific evidence in climate litigation. In all three cases, the plaintiffs sought or are seeking stronger government action to address climate risks. All three cases also involved significant discussions of climate science in both the parties’ arguments and the judicial decisions. The outcome of these cases and the decisions in Urgenda and Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz not only set precedent for future climate litigation, but also suggests jurisdictions in Europe are likely to see an increase in such cases.
Urgenda
Urgenda Foundation v. State of the Netherlands, decided by the District Court of The Hague in 2015 and upheld by the Hague Court of Appeal in 2018 and ultimately by the Dutch Supreme Court in 2019,
makes extensive use of climate science to establish the State’s obligations. Central to the courts’ decisions were reports and findings from the IPCC, particularly those contained in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which underpinned the legal arguments.
In this case, the trial and appellate courts heavily relied on AR4 to substantiate the urgency of reducing emissions.
Specifically, the trial court’s mandate—that the Dutch government must reduce GHG emissions by at least 25% below 1990 levels by 2020—was grounded in AR4’s findings, which indicated that developed countries needed to reduce emissions by 25-40% by 2020 to maintain a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (°C).
Although the appellate court recognized that limiting warming to 2°C may be inadequate to protect against severe climate impacts—a concern more fully addressed in AR5, which showed that damages were already occurring at current levels of warming—it did not extend the required reduction targets beyond what was indicated in AR4, as the claim itself did not seek reductions based on AR5’s lower temperature thresholds.
Other scientific facts found by the trial court include:
- the increasing rate of Earth’s warming between 1850 and 2017 (shown through a NASA diagram presented by Urgenda during oral argument),
- the continued rise of global GHGs (established during oral argument using data from the European Database for Global Atmospheric Research), and
- the increasing risk of reaching climate change “tipping points,” or abrupt changes to the climate for which it is difficult to prepare (supported by the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report).
The trial court emphasized the Dutch government’s legal obligation to protect its citizens from the dire risks associated with climate change. This obligation was grounded in the principles of the European Convention on Human Rights, particularly the right to life (Article 2) and the right to private and family life (Article 8). The court determined that failing to adopt adequate measures to reduce emissions constituted a breach of these rights, as the scientific evidence clearly demonstrated the significant threats posed by climate change to human health and safety.
At issue was what level of emissions reductions would be required to protect these rights. The trial court’s ultimate holding—that the Dutch government must limit GHG emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020—was partially based on the 25-40% range outline in IPCC AR4. While the court did not imply that the IPCC’s reports created a legal obligation, it did say the body’s scientific conclusion “confirms the fact that at least a 25-40% reduction of CO2 emissions as of 2020 is required to prevent dangerous climate change.”
The Dutch Supreme Court affirmed, saying the Dutch government’s duty of care “entails that, in 2020, the Netherlands must achieve a reduction in GHG emissions of 25-40% compared to emissions in 1990, in accordance with the target referred to in AR4.”
The trial court (the Hague District Court) rejected the government’s argument that its existing climate policies were sufficient, stating that the scientific consensus necessitated more ambitious action.
On this issue, the Dutch Supreme Court simply stated, “a substantiation based on climate science was never given, while it is an established fact that postponing reductions in the meantime will cause continued emissions of CO2, which in turn will contribute to further global warming.”
This ruling effectively mandated that the Dutch government integrate consensus climate science into its emissions reduction policy. On April 24, 2020, the Dutch government announced its plan to comply with the Urgenda ruling, saying it would reduce coal-fired power plant capacity and invest in preserving biodiversity and clean air.
Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland (ECtHR)
The Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz case, brought before the ECtHR, similarly relies on a range of scientific evidence to show violations of Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Petitioners, a group of senior-aged Swiss women, argued that the Swiss government's inadequate climate policies violated their rights under the Convention to privacy and family life.
Similar to Urgenda, the ECtHR heavily relied on the IPCC. The ECtHR primarily used IPCC Assessment Reports to describe its general observations on climate change and the necessary emissions reductions from countries like Switzerland.
However, the ECtHR also had to weigh evidence supporting the plaintiffs’ claims that climate change disproportionately impacts older citizens.
Central to the plaintiffs’ argument was their contention that, in Switzerland specifically, “climate change-induced heatwaves would increasingly cause further deaths and illnesses in older women with chronic diseases.”
On this point, the court primarily cited government data concerning the impact of climate change in Switzerland. For example, the court cited the Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology for the fact that “the summers of 2003, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2022 had been the five warmest summers on record in Switzerland, with those of 2003 and 2022 being the first and second hottest since records had begun.”
These heatwaves resulted in almost 1,000 additional heat-related deaths in 2003 and 800 in 2015.
Using studies from the Swiss government as well as academia, the court went on to note how the majority of those additional deaths were persons over 75, including 80% of the additional deaths from the 2003 heatwave.
Based on this evidence, the court held that there was a clear link between the government’s inadequate climate action and the increased health risks faced by the KlimaSeniorinnen.
Luciano Lliuya v RWE AG
The Luciano Lliuya v. RWE case also underscores the interplay between scientific evidence and judicial reasoning in climate litigation and is a particularly important case for the application of climate attribution science to civil liability claims. In this ongoing litigation, Peruvian farmer Luciano Lliuya sued RWE, Germany’s largest electricity producer, for its contribution to climate change, seeking compensation for the costs of protecting his home in Huaraz, Peru, from the risks he claims are posed by a glacial lake outburst flood exacerbated by global warming.
Central to Lliuya’s argument is the scientific evidence he claims links RWE’s emissions to the increased risk of flooding in Lliuya’s village. Lliuya’s complaint, filed in 2015, relied on studies demonstrating that climate change, driven by GHG emissions, was accelerating glacial melt in the Andes. The complaint also directed the court to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, which concluded: “there is a very high degree of confidence in the attribution of climate change to the glacier retreat in the Andes in South America.”
And it cited various forms of “attribution science,” which seeks to quantify the contribution of specific sources to global warming and, subsequently, to specific climate impacts.
The complaint’s central piece of attribution evidence was the 2014 “Carbon Majors Report,” which applies a methodology to quantify the GHG emissions attributable to major fossil fuel producers.
The report identified RWE as one of the top emitters of GHGs historically. It estimated the company had been responsible for 0.47% of global emissions from 1854 to 2010, thereby linking the company’s activities to the broader impacts of climate change.
Consequently, Lliuya’s complaint asks RWE to provide damages in the form of 0.47% of the costs of protecting Lliuya’s home from glacial flooding.
The German trial court (the 2nd Civil Chamber of the District Court Essen) ruled the complaint was inadmissible, partially on the grounds that the causal connection between RWE’s emissions and glacial flooding in the Andes is too indeterminate. It explained that while “from a scientific perspective, every emission may be causational for the state of the climate as it presents itself today, [ ] but this assessment has no bearing on the question of legal attribution to individual emitters.”
In 2017, the German appellate court (Higher Regional Court in Hamm) disagreed and ruled the complaint was legally admissible. By allowing the suit to move to the evidentiary phase, the court recognized the potential validity of Lliuya’s claims, implying that if scientific evidence could substantiate the link between RWE’s emissions and the specific risk faced by Lliuya, the company could be held liable for its proportional contribution to the risk. The court specifically instructed the parties to designate appropriate experts to answer the following questions: (1) whether a flood or mudslide caused by glacial melting poses a serious threat to Lliuya’s property, and (2) whether RWE’s emissions’ contribution to climate change is “measurable and calculable, and accounts for 0.47% of the total.”
The ultimate outcome of this case is likely to have significant implications for claims involving climate attribution evidence and liability for climate damages.
IV. Conclusion
Climate litigation is reaching national courts and multijurisdictional tribunals across Europe, with some decisions demonstrating the complicated interplay between the two. Litigation is expected to continue as climate impacts become more frequent and intense, the energy transition continues to drive the development of new projects, and as individual countries and the European Union put into place more climate-related policies. Courts throughout Europe will play an integral role in, among other things, articulating the roles and responsibilities of various actors, evaluating environmental reviews, evaluating companies’ marketing claims, and assessing whether governments or private entities are setting sufficient, or making sufficient progress towards, emissions reduction targets.